Commodities are selling off. From energy to metals we have seen widespread weakness in commodities at the back of global growth concerns. Since March 2011, S&P GSCI has been in a downtrend forming wide swings. Feb 2012 peak was lower than the April 2011 and Sept 2012 peak was lower than Feb 2012. This resulted in a […]
After a dry summer and a global scale drought, agricultural commodity prices moved higher resulting in returns in excess of 30%. From those, wheat and corn were sharply higher when compared with other soft commodities like coffee, cocoa, cotton & sugar. Sharp spike in wheat prices pushed the agricultural commodity from 600 to 950 levels in less than two months. Wheat price reached 947 levels […]
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me… Jobless claims increased by 46,000 to 388,000 in the week ended Oct. 13 from a revised 342,000 the prior period that was the lowest since February 2008. This was recorded as a sharp reversal on our charts and with 388K, initial jobless claims is now above […]
I’m sure everybody read the critics on how the data on job numbers were misleading or totally wrong. While the expectation was 8.2% for the month of September, unemployment rate was reported as 7.8%. A sharp drop! Leaving all the conspiracy theories aside, this data was exactly what we needed to resume the downtrend in jobless claims and improve […]
Did euro reverse its 2 year-long downtrend? EUR/USD broke down its long-term moving average in September 2011. Since then it has been trending below the 200 day moving average with one exception in October 2011, which was a 3 day spike above the long-term average and was not a valid breakout. In July 2012, EUR/USD reached […]
Followers of Tech Charts will remember this chart on the CBOE VIX. I have been bringing this important chart to your attention for almost 3 months. Repetitive positive divergences and similar technical outlook in the past two CBOE VIX reversals made this chart even more essential. VIX found support at 15 levels in 2008, 2010, 2011 and 2012. Each one of those tests […]
Long-term charts are usually self-explanatory. They lay out the big picture in a clear-cut way. The below long-term chart (decade-long) shows U.S. dollar vs. Turkish Lira. From 2002 to 2011 USD/TL moved between 1.15 and 1.76. This was a wide trading range with several of volatile swings. In the last quarter of 2011 there has been a major […]
Sugar prices are now testing a 5 year-long trend support. Since the beginning of 2007 prices have been moving higher. Swings in the uptrend have been sharp and volatile. It is now the 5th time sugar is testing the long-term trend support at 18.90 levels. Relative Strength Index formed a positive divergence on the weekly scale […]
Claims for the September 15 week are down only 3,000 to a 382,000 level that is above consensus for 373,000. The September 8 week is revised to 385,000 with roughly half of the week’s 18,000 jump due to Isaac. In my opinion people are too focused on week to week changes while on the other hand slowing down in the […]
New housing construction rose in August, boosted by the strongest pace of single-family home starts in more than two years that shows an improving U.S. real estate market – says the news headlines… Beginning construction climbed 2.3 percent to a 750,000 annual rate, less than forecast and restrained by a drop in the building of apartments, […]
