Lumber price hits strong resistance at 327 levels and is likely to pull back. Horizontal support/resistance levels provide valuable information on the supply and demand relationship. Lumber is an important commodity for the housing market. Over the past three years prices have been consolidating in a wide range between 150 and 330 levels. Higher lows on the price chart shows increasing […]
Will EUR/USD manage to hold above its 200-day moving average? I have updated EUR/USD chart earlier during October. http://techcharts.wordpress.com/2012/10/12/eurusd-5/ Since then, cross rate continued to consolidate above its long-term average. While the direction of the next trend period is not clear yet, failure to rebound from this strong support area is a warning signal for euro weakness. Over […]
Soybeans are close to a strong directional move. Since the dry summer conditions ended prices have reversed sharply and pulled back to their 200 day moving average. Soybeans found resistance between 1,664-1,800 area in August and formed a double top chart pattern which was broken down at 1,600 level in September. Prices are now consolidating above […]
U.S. government bonds are likely to rebound at the back of a risk-off environment. Weak commodities and equities helped cash and cash equivalents to gain strength over the past week. U.S. 5 year note provides good risk/reward in the short-term as it found support at a strong technical level and also rebounded with an outside […]
Commodities are selling off. From energy to metals we have seen widespread weakness in commodities at the back of global growth concerns. Since March 2011, S&P GSCI has been in a downtrend forming wide swings. Feb 2012 peak was lower than the April 2011 and Sept 2012 peak was lower than Feb 2012. This resulted in a […]
After a dry summer and a global scale drought, agricultural commodity prices moved higher resulting in returns in excess of 30%. From those, wheat and corn were sharply higher when compared with other soft commodities like coffee, cocoa, cotton & sugar. Sharp spike in wheat prices pushed the agricultural commodity from 600 to 950 levels in less than two months. Wheat price reached 947 levels […]
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me… Jobless claims increased by 46,000 to 388,000 in the week ended Oct. 13 from a revised 342,000 the prior period that was the lowest since February 2008. This was recorded as a sharp reversal on our charts and with 388K, initial jobless claims is now above […]
I’m sure everybody read the critics on how the data on job numbers were misleading or totally wrong. While the expectation was 8.2% for the month of September, unemployment rate was reported as 7.8%. A sharp drop! Leaving all the conspiracy theories aside, this data was exactly what we needed to resume the downtrend in jobless claims and improve […]
Did euro reverse its 2 year-long downtrend? EUR/USD broke down its long-term moving average in September 2011. Since then it has been trending below the 200 day moving average with one exception in October 2011, which was a 3 day spike above the long-term average and was not a valid breakout. In July 2012, EUR/USD reached […]
Followers of Tech Charts will remember this chart on the CBOE VIX. I have been bringing this important chart to your attention for almost 3 months. Repetitive positive divergences and similar technical outlook in the past two CBOE VIX reversals made this chart even more essential. VIX found support at 15 levels in 2008, 2010, 2011 and 2012. Each one of those tests […]
