U.S. UNEMPLOYMENT

U.S. ADP January payroll change smallest since August at 175,000. U.S. employment increased by 175K private sector jobs in January. Data updated on a monthly basis.

Thursday: U.S. weekly jobless claims data. Data updated on a weekly basis.

These two data series become more important as FED starts tapering program. U.S. weekly jobless claims and ADP Employment (total nonfarm private employment) reached strong support levels; in other words overstretched levels from historical perspective. Any data point going forward could be worse than expected. Historically medium/long-term reversals took place around these levels. By looking at these long-term charts on the economic time series, I believe the FED will not be aggressive in their tapering program in the following months. Any spike on the U.S. weekly jobless claims or worse than expected numbers on the ADP employment could weaken the case for further tapering.