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U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

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U.S. dollar strength is here to stay. Greenback had a strong recovery last week. Strong dollar will continue to put pressure on commodities, commodity currencies and also emerging markets. In other words, weak emerging markets, commodities and strong U.S. Dollar trend is likely to continue in the following months.

After its breakout from a decade-long consolidation in the last quarter of 2014, U.S. Dollar index rallied from 85 to 100 levels. Since March 2015, price has been pulling back to the strong support at 92 levels. Last week, the dollar index tested the strong support and rebounded sharply. Latest consolidation is more like a counter trend move in the context of a short/medium-term correction. Uptrend in the U.S. Dollar remains intact and once the choppy sideways consolidation is over we can expect the continuation of the uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX

MAJOR U.S. DOLLAR CROSS RATES

EURUSD

USDSGD

U.S DOLLAR VS. SINGAPORE DOLLAR

USDSEK

U.S. DOLLAR VS. SWEDISH KRONA

USDNOK

U.S. DOLLAR VS. NORWEGIAN KRONE

USDCAD

U.S. DOLLAR VS. CANADIAN DOLLAR

USDJPY

U.S. DOLLAR VS. JAPANESE YEN

GBPUSD

BRITISH POUND VS. U.S. DOLLAR

NZDUSD

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR VS. U.S. DOLLAR

AUDUSD

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR VS. U.S. DOLLAR

GBP/ZAR

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Monthly scale chart of GBP/ZAR

Monthly scale chart of GBP/ZAR

UK election results gave boost to FTSE 100 index and British pound against major currencies. There are several GBP pairs that are preparing for strong directional movements. Out of those I like GBP/ZAR the most for two reasons. These reasons are also the major component of my trade selection process. GBP/ZAR is trying to breakout from a 15 year-long consolidation. Breakout from the long-term consolidation will push the cross rate to “uncharted territory”; in other words to all-time highs. Price reaching all-time highs has the least resistance. I prefer charts that are breaking to all-time highs.

Weekly scale chart of GBP/ZAR

Weekly scale chart of GBP/ZAR

Over the past one year GBP/ZAR has been consolidating in a tight consolidation range. In technical analysis the chart pattern is called rectangle. It is a continuation chart pattern. Rectangle has horizontal resistance at 18.8 levels. I prefer horizontal breakouts from minor chart patterns that also has long-term implications. Decisive break above 18.8 on a weekly closing basis, will also clear the 15 year-long trend resistance. Such price action will be positive for GBP and suggest higher levels towards 20-21 area on GBP/ZAR.

GBP/SGD

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Long-term trends can be interrupted by short/medium-term consolidations; in other words “breath-taking” periods. In technical analysis these type of short/medium-term consolidations are classified as flag, pennant, triangle or rectangle chart pattern. Each chart pattern has its own characteristics.

Since the beginning of 2013, British pound has been outperforming Singapore dollar. Cross rate formed a clear uptrend. After reaching 2.13 levels in the beginning of 2014, GBP/SGD started moving sideways to form a common consolidation pattern known as symmetrical triangle. Volatility on daily and weekly scale suggests another trend period is likely to unfold following the latest consolidation. Breakout above 2.12 levels will be bullish for British pound and GBP/SGD cross-rate will target 2.15-2.18 area. As long as the cross rate remains above 2.09 levels the uptrend will remain intact.

GBPSGD

GBP/CHF

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GBPCHF

GBP is gaining strength against major currencies. This is a bullish chart pattern that has been forming over the past year on GBP/CHF. Cross rate tested 1.48 levels for three times over the past year and a break above this resistance could send the cross rate towards 1.51-1.52 area resulting in further GBP strength. Chart pattern can be classified as a double bottom or cup with handle . In both cases a breakout on the upside will generate a bullish signal for GBP in the short/medium-term.

EUR/USD & GBP/USD

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EURUSD

GBPUSD

If you think that currencies have been volatile, you haven’t seen anything yet. We are likely to see more volatility and read about “currency wars” in the following months. These two charts are extremely powerful and suggest both cross rates are at an extreme low volatility period when compared with the past few decades. Volatility is cyclical and low volatility is usually followed by high volatility and vice versa. Both EUR/USD and GBP/USD are getting closer to a major breakout that will be followed by multi-month trend periods. These are very long-term charts and are presented to show that actually we are at a low volatility period. Levels to watch in the long-term for EUR/USD: (resistance: 1.41, support: 1.21) for GBP/USD: (resistance: 1.65, support: 1.50).

GBP/USD

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One of the best long-term opportunity is presenting itself on the GBP/USD chart. This widely followed currency pair is now forming a perfect symmetrical triangle. Since 2009, GBP/USD has been consolidating in a range between 1,35 and 1,70. As it is always the case with symmetrical triangles, consolidation range narrows and is usually followed by a strong breakout. It is hard to guess the direction of the breakout. Symmetrical triangles can be continuation patterns as well as reversal patterns. In order not to anticipate it is always better to wait for a decisive close outside of the boundaries as a confirmation.

Over the past 3 years consolidation range has narrowed on the GBP/USD chart and the boundaries are now between 1.52 and 1.65. We are getting close to a strong breakout that is likely to result in a medium/long-term trend. Watch these two levels carefully on a weekly basis. 1.52 is support and 1.62-1.65 area is strong resistance.