Gold, Silver, USD and Unemployment

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Here are some of the charts that I shared on twitter today. U.S. weekly jobless claims chart is extremely important as I shared several updates on this topic. Year 2013 can prove to be a major low for weekly jobless claims figure.

Both Gold and Silver are now close to major support levels.

U.S. dollar index rebounded from a 2 year-long trend support.

and some other updates on EUR/TRY, USD/TRY and NIKKEI…

INDIA BOMBAY SE SENSEX INDEX

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INDIA BSE SENSEX

Strength in India’s BSE Sensex Index is no surprise as the benchmark has been testing historical high levels. In September I shared an analysis showing similarities between India and South Africa equity index chart patterns. I think consecutive tests of the historical high levels on the BSE Sensex Index will lead to a breakout and higher levels in the following months. There are usually “double tops” in technical analysis but rarely we see “triple tops”. 3rd test of the historical high level at 21,200 could be a preparation for a decisive breakout. Let’s wait for confirmation. A breakout above 21,200 with a strong weekly bar will be very bullish for this market.

Yields, Copper and Nikkei

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Some quick thoughts I just shared on twitter. Charts are valuable. Notes on these:

1) 10 Year U.S. yields are climbing higher. Now very close to strong 7 year-long trend resistance. Breakout above 3.0 levels could be a “game changer”.

2) Nikkei 225 has strong long-term resistance at 16,000 levels. As it approaches to that level, expect weakness.

3) Copper might be forming a medium-term base at these levels. Breakout above 3.35-3.50 will be bullish in the medium-term with a price target of 4.

US DOLLAR/INDONESIAN RUPIAH

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 USDIDR

Indonesian rupiah had its share from the weakness in emerging market currencies. Over the past two years Rupiah weakened against the U.S. dollar similar to earlier price depreciation that took the cross rate from the lower boundary of its long-term consolidation to test the upper boundary. Fluctuations were between 8,300 and 12,400 levels. It is now the 4th time that the USD/IDR is testing its decade-long trend resistance. Price chart suggests Rupiah strength against the U.S. dollar, should the history repeats itself. Until we see a decisive breakout above 12,400 levels, we should expect reversion to the mean – a breath-taking period after the sharp depreciation in IDR.

ITALY MIBTEL & SPAIN IBEX 35

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ITALY FTSE MIBTEL INDEX II

SPAIN IBEX 35 INDEX II

Since July 2012 both indices respected their 50-day moving averages. Over the past 5 months MIBTEL and IBEX 35 rebounded twice from their 50-day moving averages. Given that the latest uptrends formed clear trend channels with their lower boundaries overlapping with the 50-day moving averages, we can conclude that any breakdown below these critical support levels could deepen the short-term corrections. Until we see a violation of the current uptrends, we should expect both indices to move higher with 18,500 levels acting as support for Italy’s MIBTEL and 9,500 levels for Spain’s IBEX 35.

TECH TRADE

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Here are some of the charts that I shared on twitter.

Compass Group had a strong breakout. Stock should move higher in the following days. This was a 7 month-long consolidation range.

I posted the long-term chart on IP GROUP last week. Stock had a strong breakout today above 160 levels. Looks very bullish.

Both Soy Meal and Cocoa stay strong with further upside potential. These are updated charts related to my earlier blog post.

An important chart that should be on everyone’s watch list. Massive long-term base formation could resolve on the upside. This chart will look extremely bullish above 1,675 levels.

NIKKEI 225 INDEX

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NIKKEI 225

16,000 level becomes more important for Japan’s Nikkei 225 index as the benchmark reaches the decade-long trend resistance. In May 2013, Nikkei 225 had a spike and tested the long-term resistance area. Sharp pullback to the 200-day average followed right after the strong rally. Now, the index is trying to reach the same trend resistance.  To be more bullish in this overextended market we should wait for confirmation and this confirmation should come with a decisive break above long-term trend resistance at 16,000 levels. Before that happens we should expect more consolidation between 13,500 and 16,000.

COCOA & SOY MEAL

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COCOA

I analyzed Cocoa prices in October and drew attention to the strong horizontal resistance at 2,800 levels. That study needs an update now as the price is challenging the strong resistance for a possible breakout. Higher prices could be seen in the following weeks once this base formation completes with a similar breakout that took place in the beginning of 2007.

SOY MEAL

Soy Meal is another commodity that could move higher in the following weeks as the price finds support between 380 and 390 for the 5th time over the past two years. Last one year’s trading range has been between 380 and 550. A buy signal on weekly MACD, similar to earlier reversals, will confirm the bullish outlook for the short/medium-term. Price could target 550 levels once again.

GBP/CHF

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GBPCHF

GBP is gaining strength against major currencies. This is a bullish chart pattern that has been forming over the past year on GBP/CHF. Cross rate tested 1.48 levels for three times over the past year and a break above this resistance could send the cross rate towards 1.51-1.52 area resulting in further GBP strength. Chart pattern can be classified as a double bottom or cup with handle . In both cases a breakout on the upside will generate a bullish signal for GBP in the short/medium-term.

TECH TRADE

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