US DOLLAR/PHILIPPINE PESO

Since the beginning of 2013, emerging markets currencies performed poorly. Though one currency showed resilience over the past 2 years; Philippine Peso. During 2013 the cross-rate moved from 40.5 to 45.5 and in 2014 the performance of Philippine Peso was neutral against the U.S. dollar. Whereas during the same period most of the emerging market currencies depreciated against the dollar.

Last one year’s price action on USD/PHP is a symmetrical triangle (continuation). Chart pattern suggests possible weakness for the Peso in the coming months if the cross rate breaks above 45-45.5 area. Philippine Peso can join the weakness in emerging market currencies. Breakout above 45-45.5 area can target 48-50 range.