EMERGING MARKETS – EQUITIES

Are emerging markets really weak? There are outflows from the emerging markets but how are their equity market performances so far? Are their long-term uptrends challenged? Has there been significant technical damage during the latest so-called weakness?

If a market is holding above its long-term moving average (200-day moving average), I classify this a uptrend. Likewise, if a market is recording higher highs and higher lows, this is also considered an uptrend. Below I analyzed 21 emerging market equity indices. Most of the markets are still healthy and they are either in a uptrend or moving sideways (no major downtrend as of now). For some emerging market weakness is not a new phenomena. They have been weak over the past 3 years. Yes, some markets have experienced weakness, but to conclude for further weakness we should see major breakdowns. At this stage I don’t see major breakdowns on the charts. On the contrary, I’m analyzing more sideways consolidations and possibility of rebounds from strong support areas.

Markets that are weakening: CHILE, THAILAND

Markets that have been weak but now close to strong support: BRAZIL, COLOMBIA, PERU, CHINA, MOROCCO, TURKEY

Markets that are moving sideways: MEXICO, INDONESIA, KOREA, PHILIPPINES, TAIWAN, HUNGARY, POLAND, CZECH REPUBLIC, RUSSIA

Markets that are in an uptrend:  INDIA, MALAYSIA, EGYPT, SOUTH AFRICA.

MSCI EM III

CHILEAN IGPA INDEX

BRAZIL BOVESPA INDEX

COLOMBIA COLCAP INDEX

MEXICO MXSE IPC INDEX

PERU LIMA SE IGRA INDEX

CHINA SSE 50 INDEX

INDIA BSE SENSEX

INDONESIA JSX 45 INDEX

KOREA KOSPI INDEX

MALAYSIA KLSE INDEX

PHILIPPINES SE INDEX

TAIWAN SE WEIGHTED INDEX

THAILAND SET INDEX

HUNGARY BUDAPEST SE INDEX II

POLAND WIG 20 INDEX

PRAGUE SE INDEX

RUSSIA MICEX INDEX

EGYPT EGX 30 INDEX

MOROCCO ALL SHARE INDEX

SOUTH AFRICA ALL SHARE INDEX

TURKEY ISE 100 INDEX