CRYPTOCURRENCIES – July 21, 2024

BTCUSD quickly recovered above 60K. Emphasizing the importance of focusing on the longer-term uptrend. Price is still above the year-long average and should be considered to be in an uptrend. ETHUSD re-tests the support at 2,800 levels. Possible rectangle with both boundaries well-defined. ETHBTC chart rebounded from strong support area. Strong monthly close in May kept the trading range between 0.05 and 0.08 levels.

Pairs that are removed from this week’s report due to price reaching pattern objective.

POLSUSD

ETHBTC

The monthly scale chart of ETHBTC is at a critical support. I don’t usually depend on breakout/breakdown signals through diagonal boundaries. Though, a trend line that has several touch points could be valid and recognized by market participants as a level that can change the demand/supply relationship. The trendline and the horizontal support are overlapping around 0.05 levels. Breakdown below 0.05 levels can reverse the existing uptrend and can result in a massive underperformance for ETH vs BTC. Possible price target for the rectangle stands at 0.029 levels. Given that this is a monthly scale price chart, I will monitor it for an end of month close below 0.05 levels. An ideal breakdown signal should come with  a long black candle. Strong monthly close in May, confirms the sharp reversal from support and suggest that price can continue to consolidate between 0.05 and 0.08 levels. For those who trade between well-defined boundaries, this chart offers a good reward to risk.

The weekly scale price chart of ETHBTC might be forming a bottom reversal close to the lower boundary of its horizontal consolidation. The pair has been in a downtrend channel (red dashed channel) with the upper boundary acting as resistance. Completion of the possible H&S bottom reversal can also reverse the downtrend.

BTCUSD

BTCUSD quickly recovered above 60K, stressing the importance of focusing on the longer-term trend channel and the year-long average. I’ve adjusted the boundaries of the uptrend channel. The lower boundary is overlapping with the 52 week average (year-long) Uptrend will remain intact as long as price stays above the year-long average. Strong resistance is at 73.7K. Price can remain in the trend channel and below all-time highs and build more energy for the possible breakout to new highs.

ETHUSD

Long-term resistance stands at 4,400 levels. Uptrend is intact. The boundaries of the latest consolidation are better defined with support at 2800 and resistance at 4000 levels. The lower boundary of the recent sideways consolidation at 2,800 levels overlaps with the year-long average. Breakdown below 2,800 levels can complete the rectangle, breach the year-long average and target 1980 levels. However, until a confirmed breakdown takes place, I will view price action as a rectangle consolidation that is trying to find support above the long-term average. Breakout above 4,000 should be considered bullish.

ALPHAUS

ALPHAUS chart pattern is morphing possibly into a rectangle. Sharp recovery from support at 0.065 levels reached the horizontal resistance at 0.19 levels which is now the upper boundary of the rectangle. Re-test of 0.065 levels risks breakdown of the rectangle and continuation of the existing downtrend. Breakdown below 0.065 levels can confirm the rectangle as a bearish continuation with  a price target of 0.023 levels. Until there is a breakdown the pattern will offer trading opportunity between the well-defined boundaries. Strong rebound from the lower boundary can result in a retest of the horizontal resistance at 0.19 levels.

CELRUSD

CELRUSD is a pair with a well-defined rectangle chart pattern. The pair completed a 15 month-long rectangle chart pattern with the breakout above 0.026 levels. Price tried to hold above the horizontal support. Failure to hold the horizontal support is now resulting in a correction towards the lower boundary of the rectangle at 0.01 levels. Breakdown below the horizontal support at 0.01 levels can resume downtrend towards the price objective at 0.0045 levels. Until there is a breakdown on the weekly scale, pair offers trading opportunity between the well-defined boundaries.

PIVXUSD

PIVXUSD might be forming a 14 month-long rectangle chart pattern with the upper boundary acting as a resistance at 0.54 levels. The upper boundary has been tested several times and it is well-defined. For now, the pair offers a trading opportunity between well-defined horizontal boundaries. A shorter-term rectangle completed with the breakdown below 0.267 levels. 0.267 levels is now acting as resistance. Price can target the horizontal support at 0.15 levels. Quick recovery above 0.267 levels can put the trading back to 0.267-0.54 range.

BNBUSD

BNBUSD completed an 18 month-long rectangle with the upper boundary acting as resistance at 355 levels. Breakout pushed the price towards the rectangle price target at 504 levels. There is a larger scale rectangle pattern between 206 and 700 levels. This is a well-defined consolidation. Both boundaries are recognized by market participants. It is important to have boundaries that are not violated by spikes, it shows that market recognized those levels and buyers and sellers acted around the horizontal lines. Previous resistance at 355 levels becomes the new support. Breakout above 700 levels will be a long-term bullish signal and target 1,194 levels.

LDOUSD

I’ve adjusted the boundaries of the chart pattern in progress. I’m focusing on the 14 month-long rectangle with the upper boundary acting as resistance at 3.36 and the lower boundary as support at 1.5 levels. Both boundaries are tested several times. Breakout above 3.36 can confirm the rectangle with the price target of 5.22 levels. Breakdown below 1.5 levels can confirm the rectangle as top reversal with the price target of 0.685 levels. Recent rebound from the horizontal support at 1.5 levels suggest that trading range between 1.5 and 3.36 remains intact.

JASMYUSD

JASMYUSD completed the month-long bullish pennant with the strong weekly close. Bullish pennant resumed the existing uptrend. Price target for the pennant stands at 0.045 levels. It is important to note that price targets should be used as guideline only. A better approach to capture the trends is to run a trailing stop or a trend following moving average of your choice to keep larger part of open profits incase price experiences a sharp reversal. (Volatility based ATR trailing stop-loss video I)(Volatility based ATR trailing stop-loss video II). So far price action shows higher highs and higher lows and this can be analyzed as a steady uptrend.

KNCUSD

KNCUSD formed a well-defined consolidation range between 0.45 and 0.98 levels. Pattern can be identified as a rectangle. Given the existing downtrend, I have added the possible breakdown target as 0.225 levels. Both boundaries were tested several times and a breakout in any direction is expected to offer a directional movement. Breakdown below 0.45 levels can push price lower towards 0.225 levels. Until there is a breakdown on weekly scale the multi-month long consolidation offers trading opportunity between well-defined boundaries.

IOSTUSD

IOSTUSD completed a 4 month-long rectangle in a steady downtrend. Rectangle is acting as a bearish continuation with the recent break down of the horizontal support at 0.0064 levels. Possible price target for the rectangle stands at 0.003 levels. Previous support at 0.0064 becomes the new resistance. A quick recovery above 0.0064 levels in the following weeks can be taken as a failed breakdown signal. Recovery back above 0.0064 levels can put the price back to the trading range between 0.0064 and 0.0148 levels.

1INCHUSD

1INCUSD is one of those pairs that might be forming a multi-month long bottom reversal. The horizontal neckline is acting as resistance at 0.685 levels. A sharp rally towards the horizontal neckline can form the right shoulder and offer a higher conviction setup. The pattern will be confirmed after a breakout above 0.685 levels and offer a price target of 1.14 levels.

KAVAUSD

KAVAUSD formed an 18 month-long symmetrical triangle with the lower boundary acting as support at 0.587 levels. The lower boundary has been tested several times and looks like a valid trend line. Breakdown from the symmetrical triangle is now resuming the existing downtrend towards price objective at 0.21 levels.

QIUSD

QIUSD might be forming a 6 month-long rectangle with the lower boundary acting as support at 0.0135 levels and the upper boundary as resistance at 0.04 levels. Strong support from an earlier breakout is around 0.014 levels. This is a good trading range until we see a clean breakout in either direction. Breakdown can confirm the rectangle as a top reversal and push price lower towards 0.0052 levels. Recovery from the lower boundary of the rectangle puts the price back into the trading range between 0.0135 and 0.04 levels.

AUDIOUSD

AUDIOUSD might be forming a 17 month-long rectangle with well-defined and several times tested horizontal boundaries. Price has been consolidating between 0.13 and 0.43 levels. Breakdown below 0.13 levels can confirm the rectangle as a bearish continuation with the price target of 0.04 levels. Until there is a decisive breakdown on weekly scale, pair offers trading opportunity between well-defined boundaries.

MANAUSD

MANAUSD is another pair that might be forming a well-defined rectangle chart pattern with several times tested horizontal boundaries. The lower boundary is forming support at 0.28 levels. Breakdown below the support can confirm the rectangle as a bearish continuation with the price target of 0.10 levels. Until there is a breakout or breakdown, the pair offers trading opportunity between boundaries.

LINKUSD

LINKUSD might be completing a 7 month-long H&S top with the horizontal neckline acting as support at 13 levels. The left and tight shoulders have symmetry in price and time. Breakdown below 13 levels (with a long black weekly candle), hasn’t confirmed the H&S top as we were looking for a weekly close at the lows of the weekly candle for breakdown confirmation. Pattern is not negated. H&S top failure can take place if price clears the high of the right shoulder with a strong weekly (long white) candle. Re-completion of the H&S top will require a long black weekly candle that closes below the neckline at 13 levels.

RUNEUSD

RUNEUSD completed a 7 month-long H&S top with the long weekly black candle that closed at the lows of the week. Breakdown below 4.23 levels set the price target as 1.9 levels. This week’s sharp recovery above the neckline does not negate the pattern. This can still act as a hard re-test of the neckline. Pattern negation level is the high of the right shoulder at 7.34 levels.

CFXUSD

CFXUSD is possibly forming a 15 month-long rectangle with the lower boundary acting as support at 0.107 levels and the upper boundary as resistance at 0.509. A breakdown below 0.107 levels can confirm the rectangle as a top reversal with the price target of 0.024 levels. Until there is a confirmed breakdown (long black weekly candle) pair offers trading opportunity between boundaries.

IDEXUSD

IDEXUSD formed a 2 year-long rectangle with the lower boundary acting as support at 0.038 levels. The lower boundary has been tested several times and a breakdown can confirm the rectangle as a bearish continuation chart pattern with the price target of 0.0113 levels. Until there is a confirmed breakdown, pair offers trading opportunity between well-defined boundaries.

NKNUSD

NKNUSD is another pair with a clean horizontal boundary with several tests. The support is at 0.072 levels. Breakdown can confirm the rectangle as a bearish continuation chart pattern with the price target of 0.026 levels. So far the pair is trying to rebound from the horizontal support and this can offer a trading opportunity between the boundaries.

LPTUSD

LPTUSD has the characteristics of a developing uptrend with higher highs and higher lows. The pair completed a H&S bottom earlier with the breakout above 9.7 levels. Since then the price has been consolidating sideways, possibly forming a rectangle chart pattern with the boundaries between 11.6 and 26 levels. A valid uptrend line  is also forming support around 11.6 levels. Price offers trading opportunity between two horizontal boundaries until we see a decisive breakout signal on weekly scale price chart. A long white weekly candle that clears the resistance at 26 levels will resume the uptrend towards the highs around 90 levels.