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ITALY MIBTEL & SPAIN IBEX 35

ITALY FTSE MIBTEL INDEX II

SPAIN IBEX 35 INDEX II

Since July 2012 both indices respected their 50-day moving averages. Over the past 5 months MIBTEL and IBEX 35 rebounded twice from their 50-day moving averages. Given that the latest uptrends formed clear trend channels with their lower boundaries overlapping with the 50-day moving averages, we can conclude that any breakdown below these critical support levels could deepen the short-term corrections. Until we see a violation of the current uptrends, we should expect both indices to move higher with 18,500 levels acting as support for Italy’s MIBTEL and 9,500 levels for Spain’s IBEX 35.

ITALY MIBTEL & SPAIN IBEX 35

ITALY FTSE MIBTEL INDEX

European equities recover from the bear market by first clearing their 200-day moving averages and then by breaking to new high levels. Two indices that have shown considerable strength over the past few months are Italy’s MIBTEL and Spain’s IBEX 35. Italy FTSE MIBTEL started gaining momentum after the breakout above 17,700 levels. Uptrend is intact and the index just completed a minor consolidation in the larger scale uptrend. We can expect the index to resume its uptrend in the following weeks.

SPAIN IBEX 35 INDEX

Spain’s IBEX 35 index gained strength after breaking out of its year-long sideways consolidation at 8,800 levels. Similar to Italy’s MIBTEL index, Spain’s IBEX 35 just completed a minor sideways consolidation which is expected to be part of a larger scale uptrend. Both indices have positive technical outlook and should target higher levels in the following months.

SPAIN IBEX 35 INDEX & EUROPE

While most of the european markets are recovering or have been performing much better since the beginning of 2012, some had extremely poor performance. In this post I’m analyzing Spain’s IBEX 35 index and comparing it with other European country indices to see the ones that are recovering, performing better and worse. This should give us an intermediate-term overview of European equities performance. I believe if we need to rank the countries from poor performance to better performance (Spain, Portugal, Italy & Greece) should be in the poor performance category, (Switzerland, Sweden, Netherlands, Ireland, France, Finland, Belgium and Austria) should be in the recovering category and (Norway, Denmark, UK and Germany) should be in the better performance category.

If we analyze Spain’s IBEX 35 index, it has been pressured by the long-term moving average (200 day) and is now testing the lower side of its 8 months-long consolidation range. RSI failed to move above 50 levels in the past three attempts and price also failed to breach the long-term average. Now the question is will the index also break down the intermediate-term consolidation range? This will be answered by the market in the next few weeks. Unless we see a sharp reversal from the support at 7,800 level IBEX 35 can fall back to 2009 low levels at 6,700. Index should clear 8,800-9,200 area to be ranked in the recovering category.