Here are some of the emerging market currencies that I see vulnerable against the U.S. dollar in the medium/long-term. U.S. dollar had a strong rally against major cross rates and most of the emerging market currencies. In the short-term we might be due for a pull-back and some weakness for the U.S. dollar but in the medium/long-term we should keep a close eye on these EM currencies.
Brazilian real is weakening towards 2.45 levels. Last one years’ move formed a sideways consolidation. Breakout above 2.45 will be negative for BRL.
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I drew attention to the earlier breakout on the Peruvian Nuevo Sol. This was a nice ascending triangle with the resistance at 2.82. Resistance becomes the new support.
[2]
Indonesian Rupiah is forming a consolidation right below the decade-long horizontal resistance. Breakout above 12,400 will cause long-term damage on this cross-rate.
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Indian Rupee held above the 3 year-long trend line. This shows that the uptrend is still intact. Unless we see USD/INR establishing a move below its 200-day average, I would favor USD against the Indian Rupee.
[4]
Russian Ruble continues its slide against the U.S. dollar. Resistance at 36.50 became support. Unless price falls below 36.50, this chart is poised for higher levels.
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